Ugh . Too bad 
Storm Updates
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It would not dare. Think positive the weather will be beautiful while you are gone. Happy vacation. I'll be thinking of you laying on a beach while I'm teaching a bunch of 4th graders.
Thank you, Positive it is! I am glad it is not me facing the 4th grade troops. Bless your heart ...many prayers for you.
8/14/12 tropical outlook
Atl. fairly quiet; Hector & Kai-tak in Pac.
Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug 14, 2012 10:57 am ET
Graphical tropical update: Tropics Watch
ATLANTIC
- Fairly quiet. That's in contrast to August 13 in 2004, when Category 4 Hurricane Charley hit Punta Gorda, Fla., and 2005 when there had also already been a major (Cat 3+) U.S. hurricane landfall (Dennis in July).
- Some convection (thunderstorms) has been flaring at times in various places, including in the Caribbean with the remnant of Tropical Depression Seven, the southwest Gulf, the subtropical Atlantic, a tropical wave coming off the African coast, and the low which recently came off Africa and is now in the central Atlantic. However, none show signs of imminently becoming a tropical cyclone. Some model runs spin up that central Atlantic low, but if that comes to fruition it's far out at sea and not a threat to land.
EASTERN PACIFIC
- Likewise, although there's a tropical storm (Hector) in the eastern Pacific, it's not a threat to land.
WESTERN PACIFIC
- On the other hand, Tropical Storm Kai-tak is bringing a heavy rain and flood threat to the northern Philippines; then will affect Taiwan, possibly strengthening to a typhoon in the meantime; and then will be yet another in a series of storms to hit mainland China.
Please pray all is clear the first 2 weeks of Sept while I am in Grand Cayman and Jamaica
Atl. fairly quiet; Hector & Kai-tak in Pac.
Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug 14, 2012 10:57 am ET
Graphical tropical update: Tropics Watch
ATLANTIC
- Fairly quiet. That's in contrast to August 13 in 2004, when Category 4 Hurricane Charley hit Punta Gorda, Fla., and 2005 when there had also already been a major (Cat 3+) U.S. hurricane landfall (Dennis in July).
- Some convection (thunderstorms) has been flaring at times in various places, including in the Caribbean with the remnant of Tropical Depression Seven, the southwest Gulf, the subtropical Atlantic, a tropical wave coming off the African coast, and the low which recently came off Africa and is now in the central Atlantic. However, none show signs of imminently becoming a tropical cyclone. Some model runs spin up that central Atlantic low, but if that comes to fruition it's far out at sea and not a threat to land.
EASTERN PACIFIC
- Likewise, although there's a tropical storm (Hector) in the eastern Pacific, it's not a threat to land.
WESTERN PACIFIC
- On the other hand, Tropical Storm Kai-tak is bringing a heavy rain and flood threat to the northern Philippines; then will affect Taiwan, possibly strengthening to a typhoon in the meantime; and then will be yet another in a series of storms to hit mainland China.
Please pray all is clear the first 2 weeks of Sept while I am in Grand Cayman and Jamaica
Tropical Depression #9
Here is the current map for Tropical Depression #9. Looks like it could cross Cuba and go right up the Florida coast. How nice!
http://www.weather.com/weather/hurricanecentral/tracker
Here is the current map for Tropical Depression #9. Looks like it could cross Cuba and go right up the Florida coast. How nice!
http://www.weather.com/weather/hurricanecentral/tracker
Looks like Nine will effect you Nancie!
For anyone who didn't know: A huge Cyclonic Low developed off the northern coast of Siberia and moved out over the Arctic Ocean in early August and sat there! It was an intense storm which helped speed up the melting of ice! This system did have an effect down here which brought down below normal temperatures for the last 2 weeks! They still do not know how these weather events are effecting the rest of the world weather systems. I feel there was a definit effect felt all the way down here which effectively gave us a period of chill and rain!
They are saying these Cyclonic Lows are not uncommon during the summer months, but the intensity and size of it was unprecidented!
The Arctic will reach a new record for ice loss next week, and will continue to break records right through until the end of September! The Arctic Ocean is 1-3C warmer then it has ever been!
So, it looks like the weather guessers will have to work into their prognostications the effect from Weather Systems way up over the Arctic Ocean!
For anyone who didn't know: A huge Cyclonic Low developed off the northern coast of Siberia and moved out over the Arctic Ocean in early August and sat there! It was an intense storm which helped speed up the melting of ice! This system did have an effect down here which brought down below normal temperatures for the last 2 weeks! They still do not know how these weather events are effecting the rest of the world weather systems. I feel there was a definit effect felt all the way down here which effectively gave us a period of chill and rain!
They are saying these Cyclonic Lows are not uncommon during the summer months, but the intensity and size of it was unprecidented!
The Arctic will reach a new record for ice loss next week, and will continue to break records right through until the end of September! The Arctic Ocean is 1-3C warmer then it has ever been!
So, it looks like the weather guessers will have to work into their prognostications the effect from Weather Systems way up over the Arctic Ocean!
Ron these are the effects of global warming. Now that is to say that we are in a cycle of change now from the warm to the cold. but not like on the movie. We should have glaciers and ice caps coming back in the next few years. but the heat and cold are climatic changes that happen. the carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are making changes that the geologist are not sure how this will effect the weather. we will see. it has given us bigger and stronger storms so far.
Tropical depression nine was givien a name Isaac!
Computer models are predicting it will take a course towards Southen Florida!
Time frame is for early next week when it makes landfall!
Lyn,
It will be interesting to see what the new intense weather systems over the Arctic Ocean will bring and the effects it they will create for us over the long term, now that the Arctic Ocean is now almost ice free....only time will tell as the meteorologists work on creating computer models and gathering all the new ongoing data to accurately predict the effects!
Those movies are pure fanatasy, and were created for shock value!
Our world is getting smaller as we learn more about how everythig is connected!
Computer models are predicting it will take a course towards Southen Florida!
Time frame is for early next week when it makes landfall!
Lyn,
It will be interesting to see what the new intense weather systems over the Arctic Ocean will bring and the effects it they will create for us over the long term, now that the Arctic Ocean is now almost ice free....only time will tell as the meteorologists work on creating computer models and gathering all the new ongoing data to accurately predict the effects!
Those movies are pure fanatasy, and were created for shock value!
Our world is getting smaller as we learn more about how everythig is connected!
Isaac
If you would like to see the latest track on Isaac , check out this link. Watch the colors change every day as it approches landfall.
If you live in Florida or Georgia you need to be watching. We are going to test our generator this weekend and make sure we are stocked with supplies. Florida has had so much rain ( 2-5 inches everyday this week) the ground is saturated and the trees are leaning already. This means wide spread power outages for our rural areas. Even as a tropical depression we will receive many more inches of rain that will prevent repair of lines due to downed trees.
Let's hope this storm does not follow the projected path.
http://www.weather.com/weather/hurricanecentral/
If you would like to see the latest track on Isaac , check out this link. Watch the colors change every day as it approches landfall.
If you live in Florida or Georgia you need to be watching. We are going to test our generator this weekend and make sure we are stocked with supplies. Florida has had so much rain ( 2-5 inches everyday this week) the ground is saturated and the trees are leaning already. This means wide spread power outages for our rural areas. Even as a tropical depression we will receive many more inches of rain that will prevent repair of lines due to downed trees.
Let's hope this storm does not follow the projected path.
http://www.weather.com/weather/hurricanecentral/
It is wise to think the worst and hope for the best, and be prepared for either one!
It is relief you know what could happen, Nancie, and are prepared!
I'll be watching closely to see where Isaac will track!
Thanks for posting the link!
It is relief you know what could happen, Nancie, and are prepared!
I'll be watching closely to see where Isaac will track!
Thanks for posting the link!
Ron, it is our busy season. I just logged back in to the weather site to get the link for someone and I see that tropical depression 10 has formed. Watch it decide it wants to visit Grand Cayman the same time I do!
Well Nancie, the weather is beyond our control!
Let's hope it sputters out or changes track before it get too close!
Is it possible to rebook the cruise at a later date if it's cancelled?
Let's hope it sputters out or changes track before it get too close!
Is it possible to rebook the cruise at a later date if it's cancelled?
It would not dare. Think positive the weather will be beautiful while you are gone. Happy vacation. I'll be thinking of you laying on a beach while I'm teaching a bunch of 4th graders.
Wonderful, Isaac brought his girlfriend Joyce to the party and I think her other boyfriend is chasing her, we will just call him 11 for now as he is over Cape Verde Islands
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
- Isaac remains very large in size, and has become somewhat better organized, but is not quite all the way there yet. The center is still broad and unfocused, and the convection (thunderstorms) is not symmetric. Thus the storm has not yet strengthened as much as some models had forecast. We'll be monitoring to see to what extent the core can consolidate and tighten up, and if so, to what extent and at what rate that leads to substantive strengthening.
- Regardless of how much the storm is able to crank up in that respect, it will be accompanied by heavy rain, and a high threat of flash flooding and mudslides will exist, especially in places such as Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico where there is much hilly terrain. So far, the storm's heavy rain has been asymmetric to the south of the center, which has spared the islands to the north, but that can't be guaranteed to continue. And the large size of Isaac's circulation will likely cause bands of downpours to linger well after the center passes.
- Thereafter, early next week, we expect Isaac to track somewhere between Florida and Louisiana (inclusive). That's a relatively confident, narrow forecast for what is still quite a few days away, but critical uncertainties remain in track, intensity, and details of impacts.
- Regardless, with high confidence that that part of the country will be affected, residents and visitors there (and in the northeast Yucatan) should be vigilant and stay abreast of the latest forecast trends.
TROPICAL STORM JOYCE
- Tropical Depression Ten has become Tropical Storm Joyce. That ties for the second earliest on record for the 10th storm of the season. At the moment the only land area that appears to be in play is Bermuda, and that's not until early next week.
WESTERN PACIFIC
- The core of Typhoon Tembin is bearing down on Taiwan.
- Typhoon Bolaven is expected to continue to strengthen and become very intense, and track close to Okinawa this weekend.
EASTERN PACIFIC
- No tropical cyclones present or imminent.
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
- Isaac remains very large in size, and has become somewhat better organized, but is not quite all the way there yet. The center is still broad and unfocused, and the convection (thunderstorms) is not symmetric. Thus the storm has not yet strengthened as much as some models had forecast. We'll be monitoring to see to what extent the core can consolidate and tighten up, and if so, to what extent and at what rate that leads to substantive strengthening.
- Regardless of how much the storm is able to crank up in that respect, it will be accompanied by heavy rain, and a high threat of flash flooding and mudslides will exist, especially in places such as Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico where there is much hilly terrain. So far, the storm's heavy rain has been asymmetric to the south of the center, which has spared the islands to the north, but that can't be guaranteed to continue. And the large size of Isaac's circulation will likely cause bands of downpours to linger well after the center passes.
- Thereafter, early next week, we expect Isaac to track somewhere between Florida and Louisiana (inclusive). That's a relatively confident, narrow forecast for what is still quite a few days away, but critical uncertainties remain in track, intensity, and details of impacts.
- Regardless, with high confidence that that part of the country will be affected, residents and visitors there (and in the northeast Yucatan) should be vigilant and stay abreast of the latest forecast trends.
TROPICAL STORM JOYCE
- Tropical Depression Ten has become Tropical Storm Joyce. That ties for the second earliest on record for the 10th storm of the season. At the moment the only land area that appears to be in play is Bermuda, and that's not until early next week.
WESTERN PACIFIC
- The core of Typhoon Tembin is bearing down on Taiwan.
- Typhoon Bolaven is expected to continue to strengthen and become very intense, and track close to Okinawa this weekend.
EASTERN PACIFIC
- No tropical cyclones present or imminent.
Thank you, Positive it is! I am glad it is not me facing the 4th grade troops. Bless your heart ...many prayers for you.
This new just in:
Isaac and Joyce will more then likely slam the Maritimes in a one two punch, according to long range computer models!
Isaac and Joyce will more then likely slam the Maritimes in a one two punch, according to long range computer models!
Isaac isn't moving much....expecting it to start moving NNE later on Friday and track up towards us. It'll probably follow the Ohio Valley and link up with a Low moving in from the west.... and arrive probably late Monday/early Tuesday.
Merging with the Low is expected to give Isaac a kick of energy and rain so we may be in for a fun time here on the lake!
Merging with the Low is expected to give Isaac a kick of energy and rain so we may be in for a fun time here on the lake!
Looks like Tropical Storm Joyce will stay out over the Atlantic and may effect Bermuda next early next week!
Thanks Ron for taking up my slack. I was just unable to get on line. I was in Tallahasse on Monday when the rain statred coming in. It got kind of ugly there as well.
We all know the story of Isaac now.
Looks like Leslie will stay well tot he east of the US going towards Bermuda.
Leslie lurking in Atlantic
Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep 3, 2012 8:42 pm ET
Graphical tropical update: Tropics Watch
LESLIE
- Tropical Storm Leslie continues to struggle with upper-level winds that are producing "shear" (unfavorable for tropical storm strengthening), but it has a large enough surface wind circulation to send ocean waves all the way the East Coast of the U.S. along with an elevated risk of rip currents.
- Leslie will sit and spin, not moving much this week but likely getting stronger. Then, its circulation is also large enough that, along with the expected track, there is little doubt that Bermuda will be directly affected by this weekend. How much so will depend on the exact track and intensity at that time.
- In the longer range, models still show a couple of possible scenarios, one in which it at least comes close to New England, the other in which it completely misses. The outcome will depend on the details of the configuration of a sharp southward dip (trough) in the jet stream over the U.S. and a strong ridge of high pressure northeast of the storm. We'll continue to watch model trends. Either way, the basic geography is such that the Canadian Maritimes stick out farther to the east, so there's less room for Leslie to escape, it having to turn more toward the east.
ISAAC
- Ex-Isaac has still been producing thunderstorms, but with less widespread severity as the remnants disperse.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN
- Tropical Depression Thirteen has formed out of a transition from a non-tropical system in the central Atlantic, and might become Michael before dissipating. It is not a threat to land. Its main role is to highlight differences in the historical database with the way tropical cyclones are observed now vs. in the pre-satellite era, as little weak barely-tropical ones such as this weren't as easily detected in the past.
EASTERN PACIFIC
- John is weak and going to get weaker and is moving farther away from land.
WESTERN PACIFIC
- Currently there are no tropical cyclones in the western
We all know the story of Isaac now.
Looks like Leslie will stay well tot he east of the US going towards Bermuda.
Leslie lurking in Atlantic
Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep 3, 2012 8:42 pm ET
Graphical tropical update: Tropics Watch
LESLIE
- Tropical Storm Leslie continues to struggle with upper-level winds that are producing "shear" (unfavorable for tropical storm strengthening), but it has a large enough surface wind circulation to send ocean waves all the way the East Coast of the U.S. along with an elevated risk of rip currents.
- Leslie will sit and spin, not moving much this week but likely getting stronger. Then, its circulation is also large enough that, along with the expected track, there is little doubt that Bermuda will be directly affected by this weekend. How much so will depend on the exact track and intensity at that time.
- In the longer range, models still show a couple of possible scenarios, one in which it at least comes close to New England, the other in which it completely misses. The outcome will depend on the details of the configuration of a sharp southward dip (trough) in the jet stream over the U.S. and a strong ridge of high pressure northeast of the storm. We'll continue to watch model trends. Either way, the basic geography is such that the Canadian Maritimes stick out farther to the east, so there's less room for Leslie to escape, it having to turn more toward the east.
ISAAC
- Ex-Isaac has still been producing thunderstorms, but with less widespread severity as the remnants disperse.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN
- Tropical Depression Thirteen has formed out of a transition from a non-tropical system in the central Atlantic, and might become Michael before dissipating. It is not a threat to land. Its main role is to highlight differences in the historical database with the way tropical cyclones are observed now vs. in the pre-satellite era, as little weak barely-tropical ones such as this weren't as easily detected in the past.
EASTERN PACIFIC
- John is weak and going to get weaker and is moving farther away from land.
WESTERN PACIFIC
- Currently there are no tropical cyclones in the western
Glad to have you back online Nancie!
Isaac is pretty much broken up now into smaller pieces but will effect us for the next 2 days.... Issac was a very weird hurricane with not the usual behaviour one expects from a tropical depression!
We are shifting now from a La Nina to an El Nino so weather patterns should start to shift in the coming weeks.
Isaac is pretty much broken up now into smaller pieces but will effect us for the next 2 days.... Issac was a very weird hurricane with not the usual behaviour one expects from a tropical depression!
We are shifting now from a La Nina to an El Nino so weather patterns should start to shift in the coming weeks.
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